A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."